This is part of the labels / documentation for <a href='http://jcm.chooseclimate.org'>Java Climate Model</a><hr/>

#confpres		§JCM has been demonstrated in many corners of Europe. ££linkpres ££conf2004 ££conf2003 ££conf2002 ££conf2001 <hr> See also<li> @develop @applications

#linkpres		§<a href="http://www.chooseclimate.org/confpres/confpres.html" target="_new">Links to files of recent presentations, abstracts, posters etc. on chooseclimate website</a>

#conf2004		§²coming soon!²

#conf2003		§<li>IPCC workshop on Article 2, Geneva (Feb 2003) <li>European Geophysical Society, Nice (April 2003) <li>UNFCCC workshop on Article 6, Mons Belgium (May 2003)<li>UNFCCC workshop on Attribution (Brazilian Proposal), Berlin (Sept 2003) (see also @att_berlin_int) <li>European Strategy Meeting, Firenze Italy (Sept 2003) <li>World Climate Change Conference Moscow (Oct 2003) (see also @moscow @wccc2003) <li>"Policy beyond Kyoto", Ghent Belgium (Nov 2003) <li>UNFCCC COP9 Milano (Dec 2003) <li>ICTP Trieste (Dec 2003)

#conf2002		§<li>Proclim Swiss Climate Day, Bern  (Apr 2002) <li>IPCC Plenary in Geneva (Apr 2002)  <li>UNFCCC workshop on Attribution (Brazilian Proposal), Hadley Centre UK (Sept 2002) (see also @attribution)

#conf2001		§<li>Earth System Processes conference, Edinburgh (June 2001)  <li>IGBP Open Science conference, Amsterdam (July 2001) <li>UNFCCC COP7 Marrakech (Nov 2001 - special event),  also COP6.5 Bonn (July 2001)  <li>Edinburgh Centre for Human Ecology  <li>Tyndall Centre, Univ East Anglia   <li>Reading University  <li>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research  <li>Danish Centre for Earth System Science Copenhagen <li>CICERO Oslo

#moscow		§@moscow_stab
  @moscow_carb
  @moscow_ogas
  @moscow_clim
  @moscow_prob

#moscow_stab		§Inverse calculation to stabilise  <li>CO2 concentration   <li>Radiative Forcing   <li>Global Temperature   <li>(Sea-level -difficult)
  <hr>
  Adjust level and rate.
  Iterating to find solution
  Mitigating all gases and aerosols
  <hr>
  Systematically calculate probabilistic analysis

  <hr>
  @moscow_carb

#moscow_carb		§<li>3 Land-use-change emissions (Houghton, scaled),   <li>3 CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis ("beta"),    <li>3 Temperature-soil respiration feedback ("q10"),  <li>3 Ocean mixing rate (eddy diffusivity of Bern-Hilda model)
  <hr>
  @moscow_ogas

#moscow_ogas		§Emissions of all gases   <li>CH4, N2O, HFCs,   <li>Sulphate / Carbon Aerosols   <li>Ozone precursors
  all reduced by same proportion as CO2 with respect to one of six SRES baseline scenarios
  ²note: atmospheric chemistry feedbacks included, but not varied²
  <hr>
  @moscow_clim

#moscow_clim		§<li>3 Solar variability radiative forcing   <li>4 Sulphate aerosol radiative forcing  <li>7 GCM parameterisations climate sensitivity, ocean mixing/upwelling, surface fluxes (W-R UDEB model tuned as IPCC TAR appx 9.1)
  ²note: for sea-level rise, should add uncertainty in Ice-melt parameters²
  <hr>
  @moscow_prob

#moscow_prob		§Relative probability of each set of parameters derived from inverse of "error" (model - data)   <li>Measured global temperatures (CRU + proxies)  <li>Measured CO2 concentration (Mauna Loa + others)
  Reject low-probability variants (kept 468 / 6804)
  <hr>
  Ensures coherent combinations of parameters, e.g. :  <li>More sensitive climate models with higher sulphate forcing  <li>High historical landuse emissions with higher fertilisation factor
  <hr>
  Still 2808 curves per plot (including 6 SRES per set)So show 10% cumulative frequency bands (using probabilities)
  <hr>
  @moscow_oth

#moscow_oth		§<li>9 Languages - for global dialogue  <li>Regional emissions, Regional climates,   <li>Attribution (Brazilian proposal)

#wccc2003		§(prepared for WCCC2003 Moscow)  Note also @probwccc, @moscow <hr> <li>Stabilisation to achieve Article 2  <li>Uncertainty depends on choice of Indicator   <li>8000+ variants, constrained to about 800 by fit to historical temperature/CO2 record.  <li>Made by scripting of same (interactive) Java Climate Model
  <img src="file://c:/ben/climate/conf/moscow/750scen15plotbw2.png" width=900 height=900>

  The plots show (from top to bottom)   <li>CO2 emissions (GtC, including land use change),   <li>CO2 Concentration (ppm),   <li>Radiative Forcing (Wm-2, total including all gases, aerosols, and natural forcing),   <li>Temperature (C), and   <li>Sea-level rise (m).

Three sets of scenarios (from left to right) stabilise:  <li>CO2 Concentration at 475ppm,   <li>Radiative Forcing at 3.4 Wm-2, and   <li>Temperature at 2C above preindustrial (the EU's proposed limit for future warming).

  ²The average temperature is the same for each set, but the uncertainty ranges, shown by up to 780 variants, are very different. Note that the distributions are skewed, for example, on the  ST-Emissions plot, most of the curves are below the middle of the range (the mean in 2100 is at 3.2 GtC, with sd= 1.9).²

  ² Seven sets of parameters for tuning the climate model to GCMs (as in IPCC-TAR)were combined with fifteen sets varying sulphate and historical solar forcing. From these the 26 combinations resulting in temperatures most consistent with the historical record were kept. Five sets of parameters were used to vary the carbon-cycle (Bern model), consistent with historical concentrations. The six SRES scenarios were used to set the emissions of other gases (including aerosol and ozone precursors) relative to CO2, such that all are reduced by the same proportion of the baseline in each year. An iterative method was applied to find emissions pathways leading to stabilisation of forcing or temperature.²
  ²Note: only six GCM fits are used for sea-level rise, for consistency with more-recently available GCM data  ²
  ²A few variants with emissions higher than SRES were excluded. ²